Mahjong Strategy: Daisangen/3 big dragons or just 2 dragons ?

Mahjong Strategy

This article is on how to distinguish 3 dragons and 2 dragons.

Hi all, thank you for checking this website! Today, I encountered the situation below.

I got Pinpu Tanpai, but there was already obvious attack from the player on the left aiming for Honitsu, and my hand can change to Tanyao or Ittsu, so I didn’t Riichi. I drawed white dragon and discarded without hesitation. But just after that I drawed what I didn’t want.

Shall I discard this ? Well I did, because if the player on the left had pair of red dragons from Hapai: starting hand, he won’t aim for Honitsu. So I estimated the possibility that he has pair of red dragon is quite low. But if my hand was not Ryanmen Tenpai, it is not worth taking this risk.

Post Script : One of my mate at discord group pointed out that he may wait at red dragon Tanki. Dropping 8p pair reduce the probability but still that is possible. So now I think I should not discard red dragon here and 9s would be better. If I draw 3s or 6s later, I think I can push red dragon with Riichi because 5,800 (Riichi Pinpu Tanyao) is worth pushing against Mangan: 8,000 (Honitsu, 3 small dragons).

As I thought, he didn’t have red dragon, and I barely won the round. I assume to Riichi is over-pushing, and If the hand got to be Tanyao or Ittsu, it will be worth Riichi-ing. And if I draw Manzu, I should fold because this hand doesn’t have enough value against obvious Mangan, especially when I have a lead.

We can extend this estimation when honor tile is Dora. The player who aim for Honitsu usually DOESN’T have a pair of honor tile Dora in his opening hand. But again, there is still small possibility that he drawed 1 or 2 Dora after that.

I hope this will be of some help to you!