This article is on how to distinguish 3 dragons and 2 dragons.
Hi all, thank you for checking this website! Today, I encountered the situation below.
![](https://riichi-mahjong.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ade96c7d34afe54feb4a61c7218d71d6-1024x721.jpg)
I got Pinpu Tanpai, but there was already obvious attack from the player on the left aiming for Honitsu, and my hand can change to Tanyao or Ittsu, so I didn’t Riichi. I drawed white dragon and discarded without hesitation. But just after that I drawed what I didn’t want.
![](https://riichi-mahjong.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/e5f1181babaae6a1998cbdb86a3359f0-1-1024x728.jpg)
Shall I discard this ? Well I did, because if the player on the left had pair of red dragons from Hapai: starting hand, he won’t aim for Honitsu. So I estimated the possibility that he has pair of red dragon is quite low. But if my hand was not Ryanmen Tenpai, it is not worth taking this risk.
Post Script : One of my mate at discord group pointed out that he may wait at red dragon Tanki. Dropping 8p pair reduce the probability but still that is possible. So now I think I should not discard red dragon here and 9s would be better. If I draw 3s or 6s later, I think I can push red dragon with Riichi because 5,800 (Riichi Pinpu Tanyao) is worth pushing against Mangan: 8,000 (Honitsu, 3 small dragons).
![](https://riichi-mahjong.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/6110daa67b42f9a4a377b3aa31ee59e3-2-1024x716.jpg)
As I thought, he didn’t have red dragon, and I barely won the round. I assume to Riichi is over-pushing, and If the hand got to be Tanyao or Ittsu, it will be worth Riichi-ing. And if I draw Manzu, I should fold because this hand doesn’t have enough value against obvious Mangan, especially when I have a lead.
We can extend this estimation when honor tile is Dora. The player who aim for Honitsu usually DOESN’T have a pair of honor tile Dora in his opening hand. But again, there is still small possibility that he drawed 1 or 2 Dora after that.
I hope this will be of some help to you!
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