In this article I describe my stats at Tenhou and calculated the probability to be Tenhou-i.
Hi all, thank you for checking this website !
Some of you may have seen the article of my stats, and I want to update that in the last day of Feburuary. Please see below, my current status at Tenhou.
The result of this month was quite satisfactory, but just got back to starting point of 8dan: 1600/3200. Far away to get back to 9dan… Compared to the stats of last month below,
You may notice the deal-in rate got worse from 0.127 to 0.128. But as far as I remember, I didn’t make careless deal-in this month . So I don’t care much on it. My rating once touched 2,200, but now 2,187.
My stats at Otokomyouri http://otokomyouri.com/toppage.aspx is like below.
My “Antei Dan-i” slightly go up to 8.596 from 8.556. Antei Dan-i means estimated stable Dan at long term calculated by position percentage. I wrote an article on Tenhou-i https://riichi-mahjong.com/2020/02/09/mahjong-other-how-strong-are-tenhou-i/ and noticed some Tenhou-i’s Antei Dan-i is lower than me.
So this time, I tried to calculate the probability to be Tenhou-i by Antei Dan-i. There is no player who reached Tenhou-i with less than 2,000 games. So I saw ranking of players who played more than 2,000 games. Denominator is the number of players who are in the range, and numerator is the number of players who got to be Tenhou-i.
More than 9.5: 66.7% (2/3)
9.5-9.0: 25.0% (2/8)
9.0-8.5: 16.2% (6/37)
8.5-8.0: 4.3% (4/92)
The players who got to be Tenhou-i from 9.0-8.5 range plays 4,000-6,000 games, and their Antei Dan-i is more than 8.7. So if I can raise my skill to that level, and play more 5,000 games (will take more than 4 years !) I will have 16.2% chance to reach the crown.