This article describes how Tenho 8 dan judge push or fold at game, and later analyse the judgement was right or not.
Hi all, thank you for checking this website ! I was 4th place at South 3, and encountered difficult situation.
Definately I want to keep this Tenpai (1 more tile required to win) to keep my dealer position, because I am just 1,000 points behind the player at 3rd place.
On the other hand, this 5p is very dangerous for Mr.B (the player on my left) at 3rd place because he discarded 6p on 5th turn and after that he discarded 3p (I chiied) this indicated that he had 3346p and 25p is very dangerous. When I drawed 5p, I had a sense that this tile will hit roughly 50% to Mr. B. But now I count open waits which may hit, those would be 25m, 47s, 58s, 25p, 58p, 47p. We can remove 25m because we see 4 4m, and possibility of 58p and 47p is low because he discarded 6p on early (5th) turn. So we can say 5p will hit roughly 30%.
When I played, I had feeling that I should keep this dealer even if I discard very dangerous tile, but now I assume I should have folded. This is because even if I won this gamble, it is still difficult for me to win this round, and Mr. B has obviously Tenpai hand. So my position at next round will be same, 4th. Then I should have avoided this gamble and focused on next round.
In every article, I express 1 circle as 1p, 1 banboo as 1s, and 1character as 1m.